Stack Hodler @stackhodlrer
Notes on thriving through the fourth turning 🇨🇭🐄 pro.stackmacro.com/c/pro-feed/ Switzerland Joined October 2013-
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"Currency devaluations typically occur abruptly during debt crises" History repeats. We're watching a sovereign debt crisis unfold. And there are two ways out: Massive dollar devaluation, or mass defaults. Nobody wants zero-yield hard assets that can't be seized or debased until everyone wants zero-yield hard assets that can't be seized or debased. #Bitcoin was created to protect you for this moment. The debt crisis is going mainstream. Bitcoin is the ark for the coming fiat flood. Or the solid shelter for the coming deflationary earthquake. Expect BlackRock and Fidelity to run with this narrative the moment a spot BTC ETF gets approved. Finite supply. Zero counter-party risk. Two attributes that that will soon be very highly valued. Slowly at first, then all at once.
🇯🇵 Ministry of Finance defending the 150 level? Wild volatility in bond and FX markets 👀 US 10 year yield hit a new high of 4.76%
Gold has been selling off exactly like it did before the banking crisis in March. Are we about to pick up where we left off? Are heavy bond losses leading to margin calls and forced liquidation of Gold? Good news for #Bitcoin holders: Most funds don't have any BTC to sell to cover bond losses. And a lot of BTC is in the hands of investors who saw this sovereign debt crisis coming. Full thoughts on exploding bond yields and growing risks in my latest: pro.stackmacro.com/c/pro-feed/cri…
We're witnessing the birth of #Bitcoin as the new flight to safety. The global sovereign debt bubble is popping. And US Treasuries are no longer the go-to flight to safety. The market is beginning to value the fact that BTC protects you from debasement and counter-party risk. We saw it in the banking crisis earlier this year as investors fled failing banks and turned their uninsured fiat deposits into bearer Bitcoin. Now, global bonds are nuking and Bitcoin is once again pumping as most other assets sell off. Performance in the past month: #Bitcoin +10% 📜 US Treasuries -7.8% 🪙 Gold -5.7% 📉 SPY -5% The fiat ponzi is a game of musical chairs. There are only 21 million chairs. And the music appears to be slowing.
#Bitcoin holders watching Japan attempt to prop up the Yen while buying unlimited amounts of Japanese debt with printed Yen, and pinning short term rates at -0.1% while their peers stay higher for longer. All without nuking global sovereign debt markets🍿
Opt out of the madness
The Bank of Japan is planning another bond-buying operation. But “the additional operations could accelerate the speed of the yen’s weakening” by preventing debt yields from rising. “It will eventually become impossible to continue with these operations” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Fiat currency relies on trust in the issuer. And that trust has been abused. "Fiat" has entered the lexicon. People buying gold bars at Costco. Government credibility at all time lows. Trading your finite time and energy for something the government devalues with a mouse click is unwise. The solution? Trade your finite time for finite #Bitcoin
The US Government better be careful how far it goes in attacking Elon via the DOJ. Would be a shame if Elon went full #Bitcoin maxi and fixed the money for good. Treasury auctions might get a bit hairy in that case.
Welcome to Uptober. 8 out the previous 10 Octobers were positive for #Bitcoin Average gain: +22% Looming bullish catalysts: - ETF approval leading to BTC marketing push by BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, etc. - Bond markets forcing Central Bank intervention (see Bank of England preparing "tools" to help pension and insurance funds) - Awareness of US debt spiral spreading, search for a hard asset alternative to bonds, overpriced equities, and real estate still priced for ~3% mortgage rates. - Looming halving in early 2024. Bitcoin's Stock to Flow will surpass Gold's, making Bitcoin the hardest money humanity has ever known. The weak hands have been brutally shaken out. >76% of the supply is now in the hands of Long Term Holders. Bitcoiners who bought in the Covid crash have been rewarded with >400% gains. If you held through the bear market, your patience has been tested. Bitcoin's volatility is designed to scare off everyone who doesn't understand the asset. But in the end, Bitcoin always rewards the patient long-term thinkers. Stack Sats, enjoy fall 🍂🎃
The Bank of England in the process of figuring out ways to bailout insurance and pension funds without calling it a bailout. They may want to expedite that process.
The Bank of England is in the process of designing lending tools that allow it to give directly to insurance firms and pension funds, after the near-death experience of the Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) crisis in 2022. cityam.com/bank-of-englan…
US government about to shut down as interest rates rocket and the debt spiral accelerates. This would be an incredible moment for a classic #Bitcoin God candle.
Funny how global bond markets are imploding but no one really cares because stocks are barely off all time highs. If stocks were crashing like bonds are people would be fighting each other for toilet paper right now. And yet, government funding costs rocketing is a big deal.
Eurozone recession, but yields are rocketing higher 🤔 We aren't in Cannes(as) anymore.
#Bitcoin now up ~870% vs TLT since covid lows. The future is orange.
“If hedge funds stopped buying Treasuries, I don’t know who would buy them.” - Senior executive at one of the world's largest hedge funds (Quoted in FT yesterday). Good luck with timing the bottom in TLT while Yellen tries to dump trillions of new issuance into this imploding market 👍
Important to note: Hedge funds are only buying bonds so they can participate in the basis trade 😂 But I'm sure it's fine.
Important to note: Hedge funds are only buying bonds so they can participate in the basis trade 😂 But I'm sure it's fine.
Oil leading global rates higher. New high on US 10 year. Yen falling. We're about to find out why Biden was so eager to drain the SPR. Better start digging out whatever sludge is left in that thing.
Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Patrick McHenry, just threatened Gary Gensler and the SEC with a subpoena if he continues to fail to cooperate with congressional oversight. "You shouldn't want to be the first SEC chair to be issued a subpoena..."
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