Fully Reporting @FullyReporting
Elections, Policy, Law, and Maps. https://t.co/jPBRSAICr4 Joined October 2025-
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@BruneElections He'd have to hope further drops are much bluer, almost certainly (not impossible, but needs to show up in next 2-3 drops)
Interestingly, this precinct (75-25 Harris in 2024) is now seeing Rs get 50% of the vote in the Gov race. Pretty massive shifts right all around.
One of the most striking precinct-level results comes from the Palisades. The burn line along Sunset/Chautauqua also serves as a precinct boundary. Both are typically blue, but Pratt leads 61% in the fire-devastated precinct vs. 36% in the adjacent one, which was largely spared.
Wow-nearly final results in TX SD-09 and Dems are up 14.4%. A 32% swing from 2024 and a nearly 20% swing from the jungle primary in November.
People will focus on the shift from the 2024 Presidential election. But a bigger question is why there was such a large shift from the R +5 jungle primary, which happened Nov. 4, 2025.
I strain to see a path back here for Leigh Wambsganss.
More Eday votes, now with 20-25% of precincts fully reporting, and the Dem lead has grown to >13%. This is shaping up to be an underperformance for Rs that defies explanation, given the jungle primary was R +5.
@NickyFrank30 @_fat_ugly_rat_ Interesting, would've assumed it was a longer time ago given that this is Trump +17 and this area has gotten bluer over time.
@_fat_ugly_rat_ When was the last time Dems represented this part of Tarrant? Pre-1990's?
A new batch of votes in TX SD-09, and Dems actually improve their margin, albeit this is a small number of votes.
The historical electoral simulators are usable again! poliwave.com/ca/fed/simulat… There are simulators for every federal elections from 1867-2025 feel free to try them all
Dems off to a very strong start in Texas EV in the special state senate election. But EV can be deceiving. Total vote in the jungle primary first round was R +5, with EV R +12.
NEW: A federal court has struck down Hawaii's law regulating deceptive AI political content and ads as violating the First Amendment. While there have been calls to regulate AI videos, laws doing so have fared poorly in court. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Glad to see Canadians have figured out tow-party politics. Next up, the British.
🇨🇦 Canadian Federal Polling Average Update (Jan 26th) 🔴LPC: 40.2% (+1.2%) 🔵CPC: 36.0% (+0.1%) 🟠NDP: 10.1% (-1.1%) 🔷BQ: 7.5% (-0.1%) 🟢GPC: 3.1% (-0.4%) 🟣PPC: 1.8% (+0.3%) Check out the latest polling average: poliwave.com/ca/fed/polls?v… (+/- change from Jan 19th)
🇨🇦 Canadian Federal Polling Average Update (Jan 26th) 🔴LPC: 40.2% (+1.2%) 🔵CPC: 36.0% (+0.1%) 🟠NDP: 10.1% (-1.1%) 🔷BQ: 7.5% (-0.1%) 🟢GPC: 3.1% (-0.4%) 🟣PPC: 1.8% (+0.3%) Check out the latest polling average: poliwave.com/ca/fed/polls?v… (+/- change from Jan 19th)
Talarico is seen as a strong Dem candidate in Texas, but there doesn't actually seem to be a lot of evidence for this. His downballot performances are unremarkable, and nothing about his platform indicates crossover appeal. Seems more likely to be a money sink for Dems.
It is kind of sad that so many smart lawyers end up doing these kind of "gotcha's" instead of serious legal commentary. This case is about an arrest warrant, it's not an immigration case. Yet some people need there to always be a way in which they're getting treated unfairly, so they grasp at any analogy, no matter how strained.
While I appreciate the Chief Judge of Minnesota's desire to take time, but the Supreme Court has said that district judges must act on these immigration cases on 24/7 availability. (AARP v. Trump). A tough rule, but surely the US is owed the same speed as illegal alien detainees?
@jimmy_esq Would seem to violate either that or the Dormant Commerce Clause. Although calling it Commerce is a stretch it’s not a frivolous argument.
Also the Greenland stuff. Despite predictions that “any day now” it would turn into a 50-40 issues, it was 75-10 the whole time and triggered a market meltdown.
The spike in disapproval is around January 10th. Not much alternative explanation for it besides the ICE shooting (Jan 7th).
Dems celebrating this ruling, but on the surface it seems like a strong vehicle for the Supreme Court to rule many of these state-level “mini” VRAs as being unconstitutionally race-conscious.
New York State judge rules #NY11 is unconstitutionally drawn. The judge orders the NY Redistricting Commission to reconvene and draw a new congressional map by February 6, 2026. Trump won the district by 24 points and is represented by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) in Congress
It's not really clear why the Court would rule on refunds. The issue wasn't briefed and was only lightly touched on at oral argument. It wouldn't make any sense for them to flatly reject refunds essentially sua sponte.
The optimistic view re:SCOTUS and the tariff case is that they will rule against but are working on the best possible justification for flatly rejecting a refund of tariffs already paid.
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