KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

Maybe we’ll get a stat correction

KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

17 hours ago

Took yesterday off from ladders, back with one today. Sonny Gray 🪜 o5.5 +105 o6.5 +211 o7.5 +422 Heavy reverse splits, will have full writeup later today.

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.25u on the +1700 .2u on the +2700 .1u on the +8000 Might have time for a write up for Leahy, Messick, and Zebby we’ll see

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@FlehxHQ I actually really like today. Leahy, Messick, Sonny, King, Zebby all have some ladder potential

Post-hoc Analysis on Ginn's performance last night: Model signaled: o4.5 @ +131 with ~3% Edge o5.5 +286 with ~1% Edge, so not much at all there Now how it actually played out... My blend projected this CHC lineup at ~4.5 K (21% K/PA over 21.3 xBF). 8 is the ~91st percentile, the tail, not the median. How to read it: His changeup vs LHBs was lit (38% whiff, 43% chase which is insane). Result, 4 of the 8 Ks came on the CH, every one a lefty, two chasing out of the zone. The sinker grades high CSW but low whiff = called strikes, not swing and miss. It got 3 Ks with zero clean whiffs (2 looking, 1 foul tip), one nasty front door to PCA. Even Bregman's ~5% sinker whiff held: he foul tipped it, didn't miss it. In the blend: floor was Hoerner at 7.4% (0 K), toward the top was Happ at 23.7% (led with 2). Extremes nailed it. It ran light on the chase the CH lefties (Busch/Ballesteros, 15–16%) usage weighting dilutes a single deep hole, a fix I'm testing.

KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

a day ago

Felt like I was missing something with these, so I decided to get a bit more granular to capture the full picture for each individual matchup, open to any and all recommendations to make these as easily digestible as possible as I know it's a lot. Will be available on the website

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@FlehxHQ Lol one day at a time

Sonny Gray K Ladder vs NYY Lineup still projected, might see Rosario in here, but confident it’ll be very similar to what we have now. The mixture centers at a median of 6 with a 6.05 mean and a mode of 6, against a main line of 5.5. Best edge side comes back “over” at +11.28% edge on +105. The profile flags are all positive: Split Influence: Boost (7 lefties plays into his curveball) Ceiling Profile: Mid | Tail-Supported, Conversion Confidence: High | Stable, Tail Environment: Balanced (Accessible) Right tail mass: 16.1% Why the lineup supports it: Jazz Chisholm (34.3 CSW, K Target, 41% CSW / 40% whiff on the CU, .490 OPS against it) Ryan McMahon (33.6 CSW, K Target, 39% CSW / 51% whiff on the CU). The CU is both his most thrown pitch to lefties and the pitch this lineup handles worst, that overlap is the main reason for the play. Spencer Jones is the most vulnerable (+5.7%, 22.7% SwStr on the FF) but small sample, albeit he is known for his swing and miss tendency. The drag is the three Low K lefties: Grisham, Rice, and Belli who threaten length/efficiency more than they threaten the K rate. I do think he’s got a shot at getting Grisham or Rice at least once though.

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KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

17 hours ago

Took yesterday off from ladders, back with one today. Sonny Gray 🪜 o5.5 +105 o6.5 +211 o7.5 +422 Heavy reverse splits, will have full writeup later today.

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@x5ypep Current odds are -132, fair value approx -155

Bryan Woo vs DET Average for 7/9 of the hitters in terms of if they're a "target" or not, projections with the current lineup: Mean: 6.41 Ks Median: 6.0 Ks Mode: 6.0 Ks ~7.0% Edge on o5.5 Ks @ -132

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. @x5ypep

16 hours ago

@KSplitAnalytics Any insight on Woo tn?

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@x5ypep Haven’t personally looked at that yet, give me a bit I’ll post the metrics for the matchup.

Took yesterday off from ladders, back with one today. Sonny Gray 🪜 o5.5 +105 o6.5 +211 o7.5 +422 Heavy reverse splits, will have full writeup later today.

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KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

2 days ago

Well this obviously did not go well lol Quick recap on all the public ladders I've put out since I've been playing them a lot more I feel like it's necessary to be transparent Overall: +2.67u✅ 5/27/26: deGrom/Cole parlays: -2.00u 5/28/26: Flaherty Solo: +5.50u (Max cash)

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6/4/26 Slate and Methods Recap Overall: 9-7, +1.95u Overs: 4-4, +0.01u Unders: 5-3, +1.94u By tier: Low 5-4 (+0.77u) Mid 3-2 (+1.18u) Elite 1-1 (+0.00u) By ceiling profile: High | Tail-Driven 1-0 (+1.00u) Mid | Tail-Supported 2-2 (-0.18u) Low | Centered 6-5 (+1.13u) Theory Stack on (3 Plays) -0.97u Plus odds Unders 3%+ Edge (2 Plays) +0.03u Centered Unders (8 Plays) +1.94u Strict Centered Unders (2 Plays) +0.03u Hook wins: Seth Lugo, u4.5, 4 Ks, +1.03u Hook losses: Slade Cecconi, o4.5, 4 Ks, -1.00u Brayan Bello, u3.5, 4 Ks, -1.00u Justin Wrobleski, u3.5, 4 Ks, -1.00u

KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

2 days ago

6/3/26 Slate and Methods Recap 16-11, +2.53u✅ (L200 +4.43u) Overs: 4-6, -3.02u✖️ (L100 +1.32u) Unders: 12-5, +5.55u✅(L100 +3.12u) By Method: Centered Unders (16 Plays) +4.55u ✅ Strict Centered Unders (4 Plays) +0.06u Theory Stack on (4 Plays) +0.06u Plus odds Unders 3%+ Edge

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Hitter × Pitch is where it gets usable. Two ways to put Geno away: CU 44% whiff, 51% chase, .179 xwOBA SL 41% whiff… but 1.099 OPS, .474 ISO Both miss bats. Only one is safe, don't hang a slider against him or it's going 400 feet

The Lineup Read The hitter measured vs league average on the pitcher's best K pitch. Suarez grades +9% whiff, +4% chase over league, tagged K TARGET. Translation: this guy's out pitch plays up against Suarez, not down.

Leahy vs CIN full metrics 🧵 I know this is a lot of data so here's a short thread on how to read these, using Eugenio Suarez as an example.

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KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

a day ago

Felt like I was missing something with these, so I decided to get a bit more granular to capture the full picture for each individual matchup, open to any and all recommendations to make these as easily digestible as possible as I know it's a lot. Will be available on the website

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Never fun fading him but that line was just too high 🎯

Brad Dressler @BradDressler24

a day ago

@KSplitAnalytics Unrelated but $$$

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@IIPatll

Threw some thought together on a couple sports betting topics while sitting at the airport and waiting for my flight. Topic 1 is “AI in sports betting” and topic 2 is “Process over results” (see comments for pics)

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Felt like I was missing something with these, so I decided to get a bit more granular to capture the full picture for each individual matchup, open to any and all recommendations to make these as easily digestible as possible as I know it's a lot. Will be available on the website soon, but for now just here. Sheets, in order. 1st Blended Board: The lineup sorted by pitch usage weighted CSW%, with the swing and miss metrics (CSW/SwStr/Whiff/Chase/PutAway) shaded green where they favor Ginn and the damage metrics (OPS/ISO/xwOBA) shaded red where they favor the hitter. Bottom table is his arsenal split by batter side. 2nd + 3rd Pitch Level Vulnerability. The granularity I referenced above... every hitter against each pitch Ginn actually throws, full metrics, vs RHP. Same green = pitcher favorable / red = hitter-favorable heatmap, with blanks where there's no sample (e.g. Ballesteros vs FC PutAway, all of Pedro Ramirez) 4th Lineup Read. K-Edge is the best single pitch vs each hitter; the component columns are each metric vs league; "tag" is the whole arsenal rollup nobody clears "K Target" here the lineup tops out at Swanson +1.3%, so this is a tough lineup to attack for strikeouts even though individual pitches (Ballesteros FF +9.65%) look good.

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KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

2 days ago

Metrics against projected lineups for the early games Wheeler vs SD Giolito vs PHI Rodon vs CLE Cecconi vs NYY

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@turkomatik very small sample size without going back to 2023.... model has slight edge on the over at -104 though

Metrics against projected lineups for the early games Wheeler vs SD Giolito vs PHI Rodon vs CLE Cecconi vs NYY

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KSplit | Strikeout Analytics @KSplitAnalytics

3 days ago

Metrics against projected lineups for Paul Skenes vs HOU Gavin Williams vs NYY Walbert Urena vs COL Payton Tolle vs BAL All numbers are weighted based off of the pitcher usage rates per pitch based off of opposing hitter handedness Any specific matchups you want let me know,

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