Charting the rise of a multipolar world order.
Podcast.
Hosted by @philippilk and @admcollingwood.
Produced by @gavhaynes
https://t.co/jyENnSiiakmulti-polarity.comJoined January 2023
Fantastically erudite comments section on our new Warwick Powell (@baoshaoshan ) article on the Subst@ck.
Powell proposes a mathematical tipping point beyond which one side of the Ukraine conflict will become exhausted.
He has also run the numbers.
During the Second World War, the US fielded the M3 Grease Gun, while Britain had the STEN. Both were ugly, cheap, and highly functional.
Then peacetime came, and Western militaries decided their weapons should look as good as they perform. The rest of the world never got that memo. And they've been winning ever since.
Why does a janky Soviet watch predict US defeat in Iran?
In a Budapest antique market @philippilk bought a Soviet diving watch with a crown that looked like it was about to fall off. He objected. The seller told him it wasn’t wonky: it was designed that way…
Why did the US lose the war in Iran?
In fact, we can tell this story with reference to a wonky watch from the Soviet Union and the eternal AK47 vs MI6 gun nerd debate.
Check out my essay on the @MultipolarPod Substack - which you should subscribe to! Link in comment. 🔗👇
Japanese bond yield's gone up, Mexican birthrate's gone down, and Trump's gone to China.
@philippilk & @admcollingwood are here with your hot dose of new Multipolarity.
youtu.be/SmEEYEzdvkI
Folks, for more than two decades, China has been thinking about this problem, planning for it, wargaming scenarios. Have we?
Who is more vulnerable here?
At the time, 75-80% of China’s imported oil passed through Malacca; the strait was seen as a single point of failure. Since then, they've built stockpiles, diversified imports, changed their energy mix and built to protect its shipping lanes in its near abroad.
The Blob geopol narrative on Chinese vulnerability to Hormuz is overblown. We have said for weeks that it's cope. Now, the first data are arriving, and they support our view. An explainer for anyone to share when somebody makes the China argument.
🧵
3 Followers 113 Followingzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz😴 Shadow MindWar Money Gang
Researching parapolitics, NVE, and other spooky things
4K Followers 5K FollowingProfessor of Urban Policy in Melbourne.
All posts my views only.
Find me also @ 🦋, rarely @ 🐘 & 🪡 .
#urban #housing #transport #infrastructure
106K Followers 20K FollowingHistorian. Nxt: The Cauldron: Making of the Modern Middle East. Jerusalem. TheWorld. StalinRedTsar. YgStalin. Romanovs. CatherinetheGreat. Novels: MoscowTrilogy
522 Followers 783 FollowingSystems Thinker | Transitions | Money & Economy
Likes and retweets are not an agreement, but about respecting all perspectives. #complexity
1K Followers 479 FollowingHater of the loved, lover of the hated. I sometimes do things related to LoL. Bo1 is only insignificantly superior to a coin toss.
678 Followers 3K Followingtraining Large Language models from scratch;
author of mlx-profiler;
grokking ML & FHE algo implementations in python, Julia, R
9K Followers 576 Following“Capeshit was always there. Even before America was, Capeshit waited for it. The ultimate goyslop, awaiting its ultimate zogcattle.” - Moon Bear
35K Followers 400 FollowingMy random thoughts on EVs, clean energy, chips, aerospace and other tech. Find more extended pieces at substack https://t.co/Jmo8iyjHrn
7K Followers 2K FollowingVice President & Professor in International Relations at Modul University. Vienna. Hon Prof At Exeter University, UK. Media/Analysis: https://t.co/moCf8jiyLS
95K Followers 19K FollowingAn American Journalist in China, Published Author, Radio Show Host & Media Commentator. This is my personal account and all opinions are my own.
13K Followers 829 FollowingAdjunct Professor | Author | China | ThermoEconomics | Blockchains | Global Political Economy | Digital Economy | Geopolitics | all the usual disclaimers
16K Followers 4K FollowingA Russia troll with a weird obsession for cream teas (cream first - don't be a savage) though sadly the Kremlin has not furnished my bank account with £s yet
528 Followers 900 Followingintellectually curious,
eager for knowledge,
likes to inquire,
be SKEPTICAL I Medieval, 19th & 20th CE History اللهم اعني على ذكرك وشكرك وحسن عبادتك
25K Followers 2K FollowingProf, Int Security, @unibirmingham. Contributing editor, @TheCriticMag. @RUSI_org. @CatoFP. The Case for Realism, Stanford UP. Repped by Leigh Bureau. 🇦🇺🇬🇧
3K Followers 4K FollowingElected Chairman of the Yorkshire & Humber branch of the SDP.
Family man who likes his sport, not a politician, someone who wants it done better!
111K Followers 4K FollowingFormer Pentagon, 2018 National Defense Strategy, inter alia. Author of Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. Views my own.
20K Followers 4 FollowingWe help companies, governments, philanthropists, and investors in their vital role of advancing civilization. Since 2017. Founded by @SamoBurja.
2K Followers 294 FollowingEnergy. Power. Politics. A newsletter on fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear, and the grid. Read by investors, executives, engineers, policymakers, and more.
235K Followers 206 FollowingWe laid out plans for the multipolar world years ago and have been detailing all the major developments since then.
YouTube: https://t.co/sjBpZdclJ6
32K Followers 6K FollowingLeader of the Social Democratic Party. Owenite. Admirer of the late Peter Shore. QPR. Follows/RTs not endorsements. Promoted by SDP, Trafford House, M32 ORS.
148K Followers 210 FollowingChallenging the herd with bold thinking in philosophy, politics and culture.
Subscribe to UnHerd here: https://t.co/zUxzdsSoTQ
15K Followers 3K FollowingAnalysis of today - Assessment of tomorrow | Our goal is to offer a version of today and tomorrow that is lacking of prejudice and is unbiased in any sense
44K Followers 169 FollowingIndependent news and in-depth analysis of the changing world // Videos: https://t.co/TNQFm45EyX // Articles: https://t.co/JCulSKzzWT
354 Followers 153 FollowingTracks around 500 datapoints a month to produce world's best shocks & surprises indexes. Career mainly in Asia, running economics teams in HK and Japan.
291K Followers 2K FollowingIf you cannot show it in a meme, then it is not true.. Macro and hunting 5-10x equity cases @RealVision 🍾 Also founder of https://t.co/XDcwDI88kQ