stef @idatsy

liquidity fragmentation aficionado github.com/idatsy Joined October 2010

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Andrej Karpathy @karpathy

5 years ago

I like blockchain tech quite a bit because it extends open source to open source+state, a genuine/exciting innovation in computing paradigms. I'm just sad and struggle to get over it coming packaged with so much braindead bs (get rich quick pumps/dumps/scams/spams/memes etc.). Ew

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stef @idatsy

2 months ago

@metadev5 They've been active, moving the rest of the funds to coinbase 😅

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benedict @bqbrady

4 months ago

Closing the Software Loop I've become convinced that it is possible to build a system that improves our core product with a shockingly high level of automation Wrote down some thoughts on how I expect this to work and the implications benedict.dev/closing-the-so…

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stef @idatsy

5 months ago

Solana tech so good it's biggest threats are social/governance attacks 👍

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stef @idatsy

5 months ago

@josusanmartin @yenwod_ I have exceeded my allocated time and nowhere close to <10k 😅

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

@Vertox_DF Why do you have 3 workstations in your apartment

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

@kdotcrypto @zft_send @SolanaLegend @humidifi @temporal_xyz @kevinxpang Which HFT firm active in crypto doesn't have an engineering team 😂

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

TLDR: The less stake you have, the more private flow you need🙃 Worst performers are losing 0.03-0.04 SOL (usually for 100k stake). Some assumptions made: - we charge 0% on inflation and MEV rewards - have no server costs - no delegation programme. - 415.8M SOL staked, 432k slots/epoch, 186.87 epochs/year. - 0.0184 SOL base reward per slot - 2.162 SOL vote cost (because an ecosystem should be healthy without protocol delegation). > Math and thinking mainly done by LLMs 😉

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

3m is far from a small validator, but there are other options. Community support systems are emerging with pools favoring ecosystem contributors (@AeroPool_ also has a great validator calculator!). I also haven't considered @doublezero, @jito_sol BAM (wat is?) or incentives from @harmonic_gg block building system. Additionally there are some "side-car" solutions emerging (@bulktrade ) although unclear how much that will be worth.

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

Breakpoint @thevaultfinance and @solblaze_org validator mixer coming up + chatter about how small validators are disappearing on Solana got me curious about validator economics. Here are some very back-of-the-envelope calculations, please correct me where wrong:

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

@uriklarman @HypoNyms @junbug_sol Humidifi oracle updates?

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

@decenterghost Agree, interesting to see how the defi tooling evolves since that information is all public here. So far it doesn't seem to be nearly as competitive as it could get if the space continues to grow and stay relatively open/permissionless

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

Decent summary, but imo its mostly about flow and hedging: Polymarket tends to track top-book odds. Depth may be thin, but if you quote worse than best available, arbers will lift it and hedge the other side. Most books are KYC/geo-gated and limit winners. Because arb bots are ubiquitous anyone can get near-book pricing without juggling accounts, de-vigging, comparing odds, etc. Current micro-structure is a function of retail flow atm.

Luis Hauenstein @luishXYZ

6 months ago

Liquidity on prediction markets is horrible. The reason: There is little algorithmic market making. It's responsible for 99% of liquidity in the crypto and stock markets, but barely exists for prediction markets. Here are 3 reasons why MMing on Polymarket is a fool's errand:

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stef @idatsy

6 months ago

@decenterghost Yup, but anyone can open an account on a web2 bookmaker and arb polymarket up to their account limit, which tends to bound the defi market within the spread on web2 books