PolyQuant @xPolyQuant
Applied quant finance to a World Cup bet. Either I'm right or I'm a cautionary tale. Documenting it live. FRA ESP ENG ARG POR GER 🏆 Joined June 2026-
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Quarter Kelly = 25% of what full Kelly suggests. Full Kelly: edge / odds. My basket edge is modest. I risk ~0.6% of bankroll per World Cup. Why quarter? Variance is high. Kelly keeps you in the game.
@heyvaro @oraculofi Con Congo y Uzbekistán en el grupo casi seguro clasifican. Poco riesgo de salida temprana, buen momento para entrar si querés flipear
If none of my 6 teams win, I lose the full $20k. That's the downside. Sized at quarter Kelly, it's roughly 0.6% of bankroll. Painful but not catastrophic. That's the trade-off for a 39% expected return.
Polymarket YES contracts are simple. Buy at 16¢, if the event happens you get $1. My basket holds YES on 6 teams. If any wins the World Cup, all pay out. Math works because their combined probability beats what I paid.
@cryptokrtezz @Polymarket Adding to that volume with a $20k basket on 6 teams. Prediction markets going mainstream. I'm documenting the journey live
@KnightPredict @PredictParity @Polymarket @PolymarketSport Nice setup. I'm in a similar basket. $20k on France, Spain, England, Argentina, Portugal, Germany. Smaller but same approach
Quarter Kelly means I'm betting 25% of what full Kelly suggests. Full Kelly = edge / odds. My basket's edge is modest, so full Kelly is small. I'm risking ~0.6% of bankroll per World Cup. Why only quarter? Variance is high. Kelly keeps you in the game.
.@USATODAY implied odds: Spain 18%, France 17%, England 13%. Polymarket: France 16.2%, Spain 16%, England 11%. Small gap between books and prediction markets. My basket catches the Polymarket side.
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